Artemisa

"There is still a big battle for winning." The expression was shared on Tuesday by the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and President of the Republic, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, with the group of experts and scientists who lead the activities of science and technological innovation in the confrontation to the new coronavirus .

The Head of State, who congratulated his interlocutors - that together with an army of women and consecrated and wise men have taken the country to the current and encouraging figures allusive to the epidemic - talked about a battle ahead not only thinking about How to do not to lose you won when the island opens from all its gates to the world: the dignitary was also a look at the future when he mentioned, in the first minutes of the meeting, the theme of post-covid-19, something in what Our scientists are already focused.

The first point on the agenda of the meeting - which he was situished from the Palace of the Revolution and who was also chaired by Prime Minister, Manuel Marrero Cruz - was on the updating of forecast models, whose exhibition was in charge of Dr.C . Raúl Guinovart Díaz, Dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computing of the University of Havana.

According to the teacher, in a general sense the week that has ended can be described as good as to the control of the Covid-19. "He has continued in all the provinces, he said, the decrease in confirmed cases; Even those provinces that still maintain a high incidence of transmission, such as pine forest, Sancti Spíritus, Camagüey and the Tunas, have also had a descent. "

Taking as support schemes on the total behavior of the disease, the expert alerted that, although the trend of figures related to COVID-19 is to decrease, "The epidemic has not finished. We still have a lot of ": the descent of the lines," he said, "it has been quite fast, but" for what we have left of October and November, there can still be a high number of cases. "

Forecast charts give good news, GUINOVART said: "We would not, at least in November, to the figure of the 10,000 deceased." That means that, according to mathematician, it is "slowing" the growth of that number. It is clear, as the expert said, that the models are being elocuent of "the effectiveness of vaccines that are being applied, and methods of treatment for patients."

What advantages do we have compared to November last year?, Asked the Dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computing at the University of Havana, and then to talk about that "today there are a lot of people immunized in the population", and "We hope that this resistance immunization is truly" the arrival of other people from other parts of the world; Resist before a threat of propagation of the epidemic.

Among other encouraging data, Guinovart referred to a forecast model provided by the University of Sancti Spíritus, which ratifies that the number of cases confirmed very possibly descends in mid-November to ostensibly low figures.

Regarding the levels of disease recovery, Raúl Guinovart stressed that these already exceed the figure of 98%. From one week to another, the increase in that indicator has been one percent; But in cases like these, climbing the slope, as the expert reflected, requires a lot of work.

"For next month we hope we are below 2,000 cases daily; Already mid-November, in about 600 cases approximately daily, that would put us in a very favorable situation to face the new measures that are coming, "reasoned the mathematician, on the subject of which President Díaz-Canel spoke of congratulatur but" without Confidence, without extreme trust ".

In this hour, "said Mandario - Cuba has several challenges before them: one of them, be efficient to apply the vaccine reinforcement dose, to shield the population; And it is imposed, he said, the proper treatment to those who arrive in the country, because of the guard, alerted him, the epidemiological scenario could becoming complicated again.

Cuban science does not rest

The update of indicators of severe disease and lethality by Covid-19 in Cuba was an issue that was also part of the agenda of the meeting with experts and scientists. Dr. C. Lisset Sánchez Valdés shared in this sense a quantitative approach, through which, among other ideas, he said that at this time all the provinces show mortality figures according to the incidence of transmission of the epidemic presented by each territory.

As a summary, the doctor enunciated that recent studies confirm "the positive impact of vaccination characterized by high speed of the process; and the universality of the vaccine strategy, which together with the rest of the clinical and epidemiological measures, has allowed to maintain a low lethality. "

She also commented that differences in epidemiological indicators between the country's territories are demanding "new integral analyzes". And to the foregoing, it added that "actions in the most vulnerable territories should be reinforced following the risk approach."

For its part, Dr. Ileana Morales Suárez, Director of Science and Technological Innovation of the Ministry of Public Health (Minsap), shared the scheme of an allusive staircase to the "new premises of the protocol" asserted to the present: for the estea of ​​the population Healthy, the end is that she does not mean; For the confirmed patient step, the purpose is that he does not aggravate; And for the severe or critical patient, the goal is that it does not fail. And in all this, she emphasized her, "one of the fundamental premises is vaccinating."

The expert talked about establishing a new protocol for convalescents. "That has, she said, a particular strategy that we have been strengthening."

Dr. C. Pedro More Bermejo made reference to the importance of studying, with long light, the impact of the COVID-19 in the population: "They are still to see the results of Cuba before this pandemic"; He said, for example, thinking about how the island is not homologously with any other country in terms of reach and rapidly with which the vaccination process has assumed.

"There are three fundamental experiences that we have won here in this combat," said Dr. Agustín Lage, "one is the importance of having a stratified integral protocol, which combines pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. The other experience is the repositioning of the products of our industry. And the third is to work science on demand side; That is, ask scientists what we want them to investigate. "

The scientist pointed out the topic of the older adult as something that is derived from the COVID-19 and deserves special attention: "In this epidemic the beak of youth age is not", it is present "the peak of the older adult, and the problem is that this is a different mortality. " We have to rethink, he said, what we are going to do with that vulnerable population, who are already 2.3 million Cubans, with a view to future pandemics.

In addition to that of the convalescent, "Agustín Lage said, the strategy is needed with the older adult who is not sick:" We need a program for the healthy senior adult, and apply there the experiences we have won. "

Luis Velázquez Pérez, President of the Academy of Sciences of Cuba, reasoned that "we are in an interesting stage," which "reflects the effort that has been making" even from a long time ago. On the estimate of the sequelae load, the scientist recalled that "the pandemic has affected patients a lot," which leads to the relevance of "taking advantage of the services we have for more integral attention, for more intensive rehabilitation."

In the same line of thinking of library battles for life, later, the meeting of the Temporary Working Group of the Government for the confrontation to the COVID-19, headed by the President of the Republic and by the Prime Minister. The figures shared in the meeting by the Health Holder, José Angel Portal Miranda, are still encouraging, and vaccination does not stop; But, as the direction of the country has alerted, Cuba will have to be very attentive to how it does not go back in its epidemiological indicators when it reopen its doors to visitors from the most diverse latitudes.

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